You're Looking Back
In September 1993, the treasurer for Orange County, Robert Citron, confidently predicted that interest rates would remain no worse than level for the next three years.
Five months later, The Federal Reserve Board raised rates.
How did Citron respond? Predictably:
"The increase was not a surprise," he said shortly after the Reserve's announcement. "We expected and prepared for it."
Looking back, Citron was able to say, as all of us so often do, "I knew it all along." In doing so, we engage in what is popularly known at Monday Morning Quarterbacking -- "anyone would know that wouldn't work!" -- and what the academics refer to as Hindsight Bias. We always can explain why some strategy failed or succeeded. Hindsight, as we hear so often, is perfect.
If you wonder how this relates to marketing, there's an important lesson.
At the outset of any business initiative, the executives paint the scenarios under which their strategy will surely succeed. In fact, everyone drafts plans so that recommendations follow inevitably -- indeed, indisputably -- from the outline of the problem.
At this stage, there's a practice you can follow to help you make better decisions. Take advantage of hindsight before the fact.
Simply imagine that you implemented the tactic, and it failed. Then, explain that failure.
If your explanation seems utterly simple and the failed outcome seems inevitable, question the tactic, propose another tactic, then develop the failure scenario for that tactic. When you arrive on a tactic whose failure seems difficult to explain, Eureka! You've probably found it.
Ask these questions:
Imagine the tactic failed completely and ask, why?
Imagine the tactic worked, but less well than expected. What would have improved the results?
To plan ahead, look back.
Four Weeks Away!
"You Inc. is not just a book about you -- it's about your destiny and how to control it."--Jeffrey Gitomer, best-selling author of The Little Red Book
of Selling
"Written in a way sure to keep you moving from page to page, You, Inc. is loaded with powerful strategies for building a better career and life."
--Tom Rath, best-selling
coauthor of How Full Is Your Bucket?
"A refreshing career primer, with practical advice for memorable interactions. People just starting out or simply in need of inspiration will find much of use."
--Publisher's Weekly advance
review, January 11, 2007
They're wizards.
By suspending magician David Blaine from a gyroscope over West 46th Street near Times Square in New York, Target created a buzz -- a feat and a thumb in the eye of Macy's, because Blaine was suspended about the route of the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade, just blocks from Macy's flagship store.
Target wasn't done. Five weeks later, the store virtually stole New Years Eve by handing out 30,000 3-D glasses to celebrants in Times Square. The revelers put on the glasses and watched the famous descending ball counting down the final seconds of 2006 -- and witnessed a 3-D Target's bullseye logo seemingly leaping out of the sphere.
These are my fellow Minnesotans showing off their magic, by the way -- reminding everyone of a familiar refrain about the Twin Cities: Make it there, and you can make it anywhere.
Simplicity
A well-known designer once explained his gift. "I just start taking things away until the simple essence is all that is left."
His comment suggests Michelangelo's. When asked how he divined such art from slabs of marble, he answered "I take everything away until only the sculpture is left."
Google broke free and into a company that will surpass $10 billion in sales last year, and with operating margins of 45%, on the strength of product whose most remarkable characteristic is its utter simplicity. Flash onto Google's site and what do you see?
Almost nothing.
But what you see is all that you need. (And yes, Googlites debated for months about the stark simplicity of the site.)
Today, peak into a design meeting at Google as they discuss the site. In many sessions, you will hear this from their chief designer:
"Give users too many choices, and they will make the worst one."
Clothing salesmen learn this their first week on the floor. Ask a customer to choose from two French blue shirts, he will choose one. Give him five choices, however, and he will choose to leave empty-handed.
Simplify, simplify.
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Harry Beckwith is the Director of Beckwith Partners, an internationally regarded branding
and marketing firm. His classic trilogy on marketing a service -- Selling the Invisible,
The Invisible Touch, and What Clients Love -- has sold over 900,000 copies
in 22 translations, and the first book has been named one of the ten best business and
management books of all time. He has been a keynote speaker for 14 Fortune 200 annual sales meetings and the National Speakers' Association convention, and has made presentations in Europe, South America and Asia. He is cited regularly in |
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national media including CNN,
The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Entrepreneur,
Crain's New York Business and numerous
American, European and Asian newspapers. A Phi Beta Kappa graduate of Stanford University, Harry resides in Minneapolis with his wife Christine Clifford Beckwith. He is the father of six children. Beckwith Partners' clients include Wells Fargo, Fidelity Investments, Microsoft and Target as well as many venture-capitalized startups worldwide. |
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E-mail questions and comments for Harry Beckwith to invisble@bitstream.net.